TEHRAN – A professor of Shanghai International Studies University (SISU) says Turkish President Erdogan and his U.S. counterpart Donald Trump share many things in common, calling both leaders “showmen”. 

“Erdogan and Trump are showmen who rely on exaggerated nationalist rhetoric to deflect attention from their embarrassingly low popularity,” Robert R. Bianchi tells the Tehran Times.
Following is the text of the interview:

Q: Erdogan’s Turkey won an extremely narrow victory in the constitutional referendum. What does this poor showing suggest?

A: The margin of victory is too narrow to justify the sweeping transfer of authority in question. Erdogan has split the country in two and if he tries to use these expanded powers he will create even more enemies. 

"Tehran and Ankara both want to preserve the unity of Iraq and Syria even though they prefer different power distributions within." Erdogan’s political base has shrunken to a core of provinces in Central Anatolia and the Black Sea. His governments will face open revolts in all of the big cities and in the eastern Kurdish regions. Those pressures will strain police and military forces beyond their limits, setting the stage for new defections and attempted coups. 

Q: Now don’t you think that Erdogan would become more aggressive in his dealings with the issues surrounding the volatile situation in Middle East?

A: Domestic turmoil will make it difficult for Turkish diplomats to sustain any effort to influence events abroad. Turkey will have to focus on its borders with Syria and Iraq where rival factions and their foreign patrons will seek to exploit Ankara’s distractions in order to improve their bargaining positions.

Q: Can the results of the referendum affect Tehran-Ankara ties?

A: The referendum does not change the need for Iran and Turkey to compromise on many small differences in order to safeguard more important long-term interests. Tehran and Ankara both want to preserve the unity of Iraq and Syria even though they prefer different power distributions within. Iran and Turkey also want to mediate great power influence in the Middle East and Central Asia while disagreeing over whether to favor Western interests or to strengthen ties with Russia and China.

Q: U.S. first reacted negatively to the results of the referendum in Turkey, however later the U.S. congratulated Erdogan on victory? How do you analyze the situation?

A: Erdogan and Trump are showmen who rely on exaggerated nationalist rhetoric to deflect attention from their embarrassingly low popularity. They can attack or embrace one another depending on shifting calculations, but the underlying irritant in Turkish-American relations will remain as long as Ankara and Washington pursue contradictory approaches to Kurdish demands for autonomy and possible statehood.